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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
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David further emphasised the impact such a tax rise would have on high street workers and communities.
“They are people losing their jobs and communities losing long-established high-street businesses,” David wrote.
“These jobs matter. They matter particularly in communities where good local employment can be difficult to find.”
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The report was commissioned by Evolution and was recently unsealed in the ongoing case. Evolution had tried to delay the report’s release, citing confidential and commercial sensitivity.
The case, which dates back to November 2021, was filed by Evolution against Black Cube, after the intelligence firm was found to have been secretly investigating Evolution’s activities from December 2020.
Playtech commissioned Black Cube’s investigation, which Evolution has described as a “smear campaign” involving secretly recorded interviews with staff members.
